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IESF World Esports Championship 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Грецияwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Монголияloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Греция

Puck
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Focus · 1 game
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 1 game
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Focus · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ThuG · 1 game
100%

Монголия

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
eleven · 2 games
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Se · 1 game
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Se · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
480 picks · 655 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
414 picks · 458 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
352 picks · 442 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 520 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
322 picks · 173 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
319 picks · 392 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
319 picks · 644 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
294 picks · 307 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 74%
Hero pool strength64% Монголия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Монголия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:24
Греция 44%Монголия 56%
The model gave 56% on Монголия — the game was taken by Монголия in 56:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinThuG
47% · 77 games53% · 258 games
Doomeleven
Doom
Morphling
MorphlingFocus
44% · 136 games56% · 366 games
Shadow DemonSe
Shadow Demon
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
49% · 176 games
Marci
MarciSsaSpartan
44% · 57 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
43% · 178 games
Game 2prediction missed40:15
Греция 45%Монголия 55%
The model gave 55% on Монголия — the game was taken by Греция in 44:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaFocus
45% · 44 games53% · 272 games
Marseleven
Mars
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainThuG
36% · 31 game63% · 127 games
ChenSe
Chen
Dark Willow
Dark WillowdEsire
43% · 72 games
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
44% · 149 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
42% · 103 games
Game 3prediction missed36:12
Греция 48%Монголия 52%
The model gave 52% on Монголия — the game was taken by Греция in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistFocus
51% · 86 games49% · 232 games
Timbersaweleven
Timbersaw
Invoker
InvokerThuG
50% · 77 games48% · 312 games
BatriderSe
Batrider
Enigma
EnigmaSkyLark
52% · 67 games
Lion
LiondEsire
56% · 167 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
48% · 147 games
Model check result
Model favoriteМонголия · 56%
Series resultГреция 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3