IESF World Esports Championship 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Грецияwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Швецияloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Греция
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 3 games
Enigmaoften banned
SkyLark · 2 games
Hoodwink
dEsire · 2 games
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
ThuG · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Focus · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Швеция
Hoodwink
Pablo · 3 games
Phoenix
bengan · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Charlie · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Excalibur · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
Charlie · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pablo · 2 games
Rubick
Pablo · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
482 picks · 661 bans
Clockwerk
419 picks · 465 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 527 bans
Luna
354 picks · 453 bans
Dark Willow
330 picks · 176 bans
Dragon Knight
320 picks · 401 bans
Enchantress
318 picks · 652 bans
Batrider
298 picks · 309 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% Швеция
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Греция
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:14
Греция 53%Швеция 47%
The model gave 53% on Греция — the game was taken by Греция in 37:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistFocus
Lone DruidExcalibur
Queen of PainThuG
RazorCharlie
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
PhoenixPablo
HoodwinkdEsire
Naga Sirenbengan
TuskSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct40:9
Греция 53%Швеция 47%
The model gave 53% on Греция — the game was taken by Греция in 25:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaFocus
Earth SpiritExcalibur
Queen of PainThuG
MedusaCharlie
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Witch Doctorbengan
SnapfiredEsire
HoodwinkPablo
TuskSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteГреция · 58%
Series resultГреция 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2