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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Apex Genesisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GRIN esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 5 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 4 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
75%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
33%

Apex Genesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 5 games
40%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
red2 · 3 games
67%
Pugna
Pugna
BliNcc · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 3 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
red2 · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
453 picks · 727 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 684 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
418 picks · 337 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
407 picks · 355 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
407 picks · 528 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 888 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
381 picks · 174 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 181 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:35
GRIN esports 48%Apex Genesis 52%
The model gave 52% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 1:06:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsMoo
45% · 255 games54% · 87 games
Faceless VoidLowskill
Faceless Void
Disruptor
DisruptorLodine
57% · 208 games64% · 119 games
BeastmasterFayde
Beastmaster
38% · 67 games
Puckred2
Puck
39% · 76 games
PhoenixYamSun
Phoenix
50% · 114 games
TinyBliNcc
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct15:42
GRIN esports 46%Apex Genesis 54%
The model gave 54% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 47:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMoo
48% · 284 games46% · 201 game
Pangolierred2
Pangolier
Techies
TechiesLodine
50% · 296 games56% · 113 games
AlchemistLowskill
Alchemist
50% · 105 games
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
Centaur Warrunner
42% · 94 games
PhoenixYamSun
Phoenix
61% · 67 games
GyrocopterBliNcc
Gyrocopter
Game 3prediction missed42:28
GRIN esports 48%Apex Genesis 52%
The model gave 52% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 52:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsMoo
48% · 233 games51% · 27 games
Linared2
Lina
Disruptor
DisruptorLodine
55% · 144 games50% · 47 games
LifestealerLowskill
Lifestealer
41% · 104 games
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
Centaur Warrunner
52% · 85 games
Shadow DemonYamSun
Shadow Demon
50% · 114 games
TinyBliNcc
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 58%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3