Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Apex Genesiswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 9 games
Marssignature
Moo · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 5 games
Luna
Double King · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
Apex Genesis
Gyrocoptersignature
Speeed · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
Lifestealersignature
Sammyboy · 6 games
Shadow Demonsignature
YamSun · 6 games
Tinyoften banned
BliNcc · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
422 picks · 614 bans
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 389 bans
Crystal Maiden
366 picks · 139 bans
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 468 bans
Dark Willow
322 picks · 345 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 584 bans
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 639 bans
Rubick
313 picks · 163 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total74% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:35
GRIN esports 36%Apex Genesis 64%
The model gave 64% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterMoo
ClinkzSammyboy
54% · 22 games
BrewmasterFayde
33% · 17 games
WindrangerW1sh-
57% · 10 games
Elder TitanYamSun
65% · 27 games
BatriderBignum
Game 2prediction correct
GRIN esports 26%Apex Genesis 74%
The model gave 74% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 74%
Series resultApex Genesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2