Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
goonswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
No games played over 6 months.
goons
Pangolieroften banned
Boris · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
AfrOmoush · 5 games
Rubick
Giant · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
Lil_Nick · 3 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Boris · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Boris · 2 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
AfrOmoush · 2 games
Techies
Giant · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
725 picks · 621 bans
Disruptor
599 picks · 527 bans
Doom
514 picks · 993 bans
Beastmaster
511 picks · 1269 bans
Ember Spirit
449 picks · 1136 bans
Pangolier
443 picks · 912 bans
Mirana
425 picks · 223 bans
Enchantress
418 picks · 606 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 68%
Hero pool strength57% goons
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% goons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:32
GRIN esports 44%goons 56%
The model gave 56% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 41:31.
Game 2prediction correct26:45
GRIN esports 44%goons 56%
The model gave 56% on goons — the game was taken by goons in 43:13.
Model check result
Model favoritegoons · 56%
Series resultgoons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2