DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Arms · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Bloody Nine · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Arms · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Bloody Nine · 1 game
No Bounty Hunter
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
254 picks · 424 bans
Phoenix
244 picks · 375 bans
Centaur Warrunner
242 picks · 336 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 201 bans
Muerta
204 picks · 285 bans
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 496 bans
Dark Willow
196 picks · 98 bans
Pugna
179 picks · 321 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:59
GRIN esports 53%No Bounty Hunter 47%
The model gave 53% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 59:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaArms
LycankAAN
DoomH1j4ck
Puckhigh_shaggy
IoBloody Nine
Game 2prediction missed21:49
GRIN esports 55%No Bounty Hunter 45%
The model gave 55% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerArms
Monkey KingkAAN
BrewmasterH1j4ck
Vengeful SpiritBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 60%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2