Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:0series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TTTeam Thinkerloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GRIN esports
No games played over 6 months.
Team Thinker
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
768 picks · 604 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 453 bans
Tiny
431 picks · 380 bans
Beastmaster
420 picks · 977 bans
Nature's Prophet
397 picks · 675 bans
Undying
395 picks · 592 bans
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 916 bans
Mirana
388 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Thinker
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:41
GRIN esports 31%Team Thinker 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Thinker — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 48:27.
Game 2prediction missed17:28
GRIN esports 31%Team Thinker 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Thinker — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 29:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Thinker · 69%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2