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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
GRIN esportswin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TiltedBoysloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GRIN esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
67%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 3 games
33%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 3 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 3 games
33%

TiltedBoys

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
bgod · 3 games
0%
Lion
Lion
bgod · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
0%
Techies
Techies
bgod · 2 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 349 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 326 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
325 picks · 510 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
310 picks · 442 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
296 picks · 223 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
286 picks · 162 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
282 picks · 422 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
278 picks · 521 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% GRIN esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total60% GRIN esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:15
GRIN esports 60%TiltedBoys 40%
The model gave 60% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 47:08.
Game 2prediction correct34:12
GRIN esports 60%TiltedBoys 40%
The model gave 60% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 28:59.
Game 3prediction correct54:53
GRIN esports 60%TiltedBoys 40%
The model gave 60% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 1:03:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteGRIN esports · 60%
Series resultGRIN esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3