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RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
GRIN esportsloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GRIN esports

Mars
Marssignature
Moo · 9 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lodine · 8 games
88%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
H1j4ck · 7 games
29%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 5 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 5 games
60%
Luna
Luna
Double King · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 21 game
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 16 games
50%
Techies
Techies
rue · 14 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 12 games
50%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
pJonn · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
468 picks · 754 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
437 picks · 700 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
433 picks · 345 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 558 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
423 picks · 903 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
413 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
404 picks · 179 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
396 picks · 194 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% GRIN esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:15
GRIN esports 52%Yellow Submarine 48%
The model gave 52% on GRIN esports — the game was taken by GRIN esports in 31:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMoo
54% · 162 games36% · 38 games
Anti-MageSatanic
Anti-Mage
Disruptor
DisruptorLodine
58% · 161 game38% · 73 games
Puckerase
Puck
50% · 98 games
Primal Beastfn
Primal Beast
48% · 73 games
Tuskrue
Tusk
49% · 41 game
Grimstrokeasdekor_r
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct13:26
GRIN esports 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 33:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherMoo
41% · 79 games60% · 17 games
Faceless VoidSatanic
Faceless Void
Zeus
ZeusLodine
40% · 64 games62% · 29 games
Keeper of the Lighterase
Keeper of the Light
70% · 32 games
Dragon Knightfn
Dragon Knight
55% · 21 game
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
51% · 44 games
Enchantressasdekor_r
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 52%
Accuracy by game2 of 2