Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionGBGrind Backloss 1:2
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Carstensz Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Grind Back
No games played over 6 months.
Carstensz Esports
Slardaroften banned
seimei · 4 games
Hoodwink
ace12 · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
ace12 · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
Dreamocel · 2 games
Axe
seimei · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
ace12 · 1 game
Dark Willow
ace12 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
603 picks · 375 bans
Rubick
497 picks · 270 bans
Phoenix
493 picks · 580 bans
Tiny
465 picks · 389 bans
Pangolier
406 picks · 565 bans
Puck
342 picks · 931 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 865 bans
Tusk
332 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Grind Back
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Grind Back
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Grind Back 75%Carstensz Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on Grind Back — the game was taken by Grind Back.
Game 2prediction missed
Grind Back 75%Carstensz Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on Grind Back — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports.
Game 3prediction missed
Grind Back 75%Carstensz Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on Grind Back — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteGrind Back · 75%
Series resultCarstensz Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3