DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionHHajimewin 1:0
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Qhaliloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hajime
No games played over 6 months.
Qhali
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 4 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Luis · 4 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MonHty · 4 games
Visageoften banned
Hermit · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
MonHty · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Luis · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
269 picks · 444 bans
Phoenix
246 picks · 386 bans
Centaur Warrunner
242 picks · 337 bans
Muerta
221 picks · 309 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 207 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 101 bans
Nature's Prophet
195 picks · 498 bans
Kunkka
190 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Qhali
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Qhali
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Hajime 23%Qhali 77%
The model gave 77% on Qhali — the game was taken by Hajime.
Model check result
Model favoriteQhali · 77%
Series resultHajime 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1