Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Happy Sealsloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
5RATFORCESTAFFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Happy Seals
No games played over 6 months.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Banesignature
Overlom · 11 games
Medusasignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
red2 · 7 games
Pangoliersignature
red2 · 6 games
Abaddonoften banned
Overlom · 5 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 5 games
Snapfire
bgod · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
441 picks · 268 bans
Mars
396 picks · 542 bans
Weaver
328 picks · 411 bans
Death Prophet
313 picks · 568 bans
Tiny
300 picks · 324 bans
Queen of Pain
295 picks · 461 bans
Ember Spirit
272 picks · 374 bans
Kunkka
267 picks · 492 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 70%
Hero pool strength60% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:35
Happy Seals 43%5RATFORCESTAFF 57%
The model gave 57% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 30:30.
Game 2prediction correct30:10
Happy Seals 43%5RATFORCESTAFF 57%
The model gave 57% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 29:36.
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 57%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2