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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smashersloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bramewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 21 game
76%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 19 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
64%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 13 games
77%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 12 games
75%

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
39%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 15 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 14 games
71%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
36%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SsaSpartan · 10 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 990 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
353 picks · 525 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
346 picks · 571 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
340 picks · 339 bans
49%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
334 picks · 701 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
318 picks · 177 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 229 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 283 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 59%
Hero pool strength60% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total53% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:10
Hellbear Smashers 50%Brame 50%
The model gave 50% on Brame — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 33:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
60% · 37 games50% · 66 games
JuggernautFocus
Juggernaut
Monkey King
Monkey KingAce
53% · 67 games53% · 30 games
Dragon KnightW1sh-
Dragon Knight
Necrophos
NecrophosMISERY
little data35% · 35 games
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Centaur Warrunner
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidentOfu
47% · 50 games42% · 97 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinGilgir
58% · 107 games48% · 33 games
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct9:39
Hellbear Smashers 50%Brame 50%
The model gave 50% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 29:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetStormstormer
53% · 101 game43% · 30 games
LunaFocus
Luna
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordAce
48% · 54 games53% · 22 games
Templar AssassinW1sh-
Templar Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMISERY
41% · 28 games52% · 54 games
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyGilgir
47% · 55 games53% · 41 game
LinaCTOMAHEH1
Lina
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitiontOfu
56% · 18 games51% · 109 games
TuskSsaSpartan
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct16:39
Hellbear Smashers 49%Brame 51%
The model gave 51% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 31:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerAce
49% · 21 game48% · 61 game
MorphlingFocus
Morphling
Kunkka
KunkkaStormstormer
55% · 14 games53% · 22 games
RazorW1sh-
Razor
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMISERY
45% · 105 games51% · 30 games
AxeSkyLark
Axe
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitiontOfu
58% · 17 games55% · 60 games
TinyCTOMAHEH1
Tiny
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritGilgir
50% · 102 games47% · 86 games
Keeper of the LightSsaSpartan
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 53%
Series resultBrame 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3