The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 25 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 24 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 21 game
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 19 games
Linaoften banned
Stormstormer · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 17 games
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
479 picks · 192 bans
Snapfire
379 picks · 209 bans
Mars
362 picks · 595 bans
Puck
359 picks · 875 bans
Grimstroke
333 picks · 309 bans
Tiny
325 picks · 247 bans
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 451 bans
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% Chicken Fighters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:30
Hellbear Smashers 45%Chicken Fighters 55%
The model gave 55% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 46:14.
Game 2prediction correct9:29
Hellbear Smashers 45%Chicken Fighters 55%
The model gave 55% on Chicken Fighters — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 36:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Fighters · 55%
Series resultChicken Fighters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2