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Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EXTREMUMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 23 games
61%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 20 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 15 games
80%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 15 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%

EXTREMUM

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 18 games
39%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 18 games
78%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 17 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
G · 14 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
54%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 13 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Shachlo · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
376 picks · 971 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
370 picks · 204 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 585 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
338 picks · 360 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
307 picks · 174 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 219 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
277 picks · 615 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
266 picks · 183 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 35%
Hero pool strength61% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total65% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:17
Hellbear Smashers 59%EXTREMUM 41%
The model gave 59% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAce
58% · 50 games47% · 71 game
MedusaNefrit
Medusa
Lina
LinaStormstormer
46% · 51 game53% · 27 games
Kunkkamellojul
Kunkka
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMISERY
55% · 79 games47% · 88 games
Centaur WarrunnerBlizzy
Centaur Warrunner
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidentOfu
55% · 43 games50% · 58 games
Dark WillowChuvash
Dark Willow
Tiny
TinyGilgir
52% · 74 games40% · 53 games
Witch DoctorG
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction correct29:27
Hellbear Smashers 56%EXTREMUM 44%
The model gave 56% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingAce
59% · 89 games53% · 41 game
SvenNefrit
Sven
Lina
LinaStormstormer
47% · 49 games53% · 180 games
Void Spiritmellojul
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderMISERY
45% · 55 games44% · 57 games
Sand KingBlizzy
Sand King
Grimstroke
GrimstroketOfu
46% · 109 games44% · 5 games
DazzleChuvash
Dazzle
Tiny
TinyGilgir
48% · 73 games53% · 92 games
Ancient ApparitionG
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 65%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2