The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ghost frogsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 24 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 23 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 21 game
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 17 games
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
Linaoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
Ghost frogs
Miranasignature
MiLAN · 9 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
j4 · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
Grimstroke
j4 · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
Crystallis · 5 games
Slardaroften banned
Tobi · 5 games
Axeoften banned
Tobi · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
473 picks · 190 bans
Snapfire
376 picks · 207 bans
Mars
364 picks · 586 bans
Puck
358 picks · 871 bans
Grimstroke
331 picks · 308 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 446 bans
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Ghost frogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:29
Hellbear Smashers 45%Ghost frogs 55%
The model gave 55% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Ghost frogs in 56:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenAce
Templar AssassinMTD
LinaBor@nija
Drow RangerCrystallis
AxeMISERY
TidehunterTobi
PhoenixtOfu
MiranaMiLAN
HoodwinkGilgir
Winter Wyvernj4
Game 2prediction missed20:15
Hellbear Smashers 47%Ghost frogs 53%
The model gave 53% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 31:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterAce
Dragon KnightMTD
BatriderBor@nija
BroodmotherTobi
LeshracMISERY
Faceless VoidCrystallis
Nyx AssassinGilgir
MiranaMiLAN
AbaddontOfu
Disruptorj4
Game 3prediction missed24:19
Hellbear Smashers 49%Ghost frogs 51%
The model gave 51% on Ghost frogs — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingAce
Ember SpiritMTD
InvokerBor@nija
Monkey KingCrystallis
PhoenixMISERY
Dragon KnightTobi
GrimstroketOfu
Shadow DemonMiLAN
Nyx AssassinGilgir
Abaddonj4
Model check result
Model favoriteGhost frogs · 55%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3