Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 11 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 8 games
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 8 games
IVY
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Copy · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Copy · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Copy · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
Copy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
318 picks · 647 bans
Void Spirit
303 picks · 369 bans
Mars
257 picks · 443 bans
Earth Spirit
238 picks · 196 bans
Rubick
211 picks · 108 bans
Nyx Assassin
204 picks · 620 bans
Phoenix
201 picks · 235 bans
Keeper of the Light
200 picks · 406 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 33%
Hero pool strength72% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
Hellbear Smashers 76%IVY 24%
The model gave 76% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingAce
Death ProphetTheBloodySky
WindrangerStormstormer
KunkkaCopy
BeastmasterMISERY
RubickGilgir
Ancient ApparitiontOfu
Game 2prediction correct15:4
Hellbear Smashers 76%IVY 24%
The model gave 76% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 22:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistAce
PangolierTheBloodySky
Death ProphetStormstormer
WindrangerCopy
TidehunterMISERY
ChenGilgir
LiontOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 89%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2