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Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smashersloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
77%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 19 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 17 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 13 games
77%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 13 games
77%

Level UP

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
0%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand King
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 991 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
349 picks · 524 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 570 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
340 picks · 341 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
332 picks · 702 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
321 picks · 177 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 226 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 281 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength67% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:19
Hellbear Smashers 58%Level UP 42%
The model gave 58% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 30:03.
Game 2prediction missed13:31
Hellbear Smashers 58%Level UP 42%
The model gave 58% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Level UP in 36:14.
Game 3prediction missed15:39
Hellbear Smashers 58%Level UP 42%
The model gave 58% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Level UP in 38:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 58%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3