Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Meta4Proloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ace · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 5 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ace · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
tOfu · 4 games
Earth Spirit
Gilgir · 4 games
Earthshaker
Gilgir · 4 games
Meta4Pro
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 2 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Marsoften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
144 picks · 264 bans
Puck
141 picks · 333 bans
Earth Spirit
129 picks · 109 bans
Void Spirit
123 picks · 182 bans
Phoenix
113 picks · 123 bans
Keeper of the Light
96 picks · 172 bans
Nyx Assassin
93 picks · 333 bans
Monkey King
92 picks · 214 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:7
Hellbear Smashers 62%Meta4Pro 38%
The model gave 62% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 25:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingAce
RikiLowskill
LinaStormstormer
TidehunterZipZaper
EnigmaMISERY
Crystal MaidentOfu
Nyx AssassinGilgir
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 67%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1