Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 10 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 8 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 8 games
Oracleoften banned
tOfu · 7 games
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 6 games
Earth Spirit
Gilgir · 6 games
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 6 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
217 picks · 457 bans
Mars
188 picks · 344 bans
Void Spirit
188 picks · 253 bans
Earth Spirit
175 picks · 141 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 172 bans
Keeper of the Light
147 picks · 243 bans
Nyx Assassin
140 picks · 463 bans
Rubick
130 picks · 77 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 74%
Hero pool strength60% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Hellbear Smashers 45%PuckChamp 55%
The model gave 55% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers.
Game 2prediction missed27:14
Hellbear Smashers 45%PuckChamp 55%
The model gave 55% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 24:22.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 55%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2