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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
RUSSIANDRILLloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 13 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 12 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
82%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
82%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 9 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 9 games
78%

RUSSIANDRILL

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
350 picks · 732 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
328 picks · 426 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
280 picks · 497 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
258 picks · 217 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
241 picks · 367 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
233 picks · 131 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
220 picks · 461 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
217 picks · 668 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 57%
Hero pool strength66% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:31
Hellbear Smashers 85%RUSSIANDRILL 15%
The model gave 85% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 43:51.
Game 2prediction missed6:32
Hellbear Smashers 85%RUSSIANDRILL 15%
The model gave 85% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by RUSSIANDRILL in 33:54.
Game 3prediction correct12:23
Hellbear Smashers 85%RUSSIANDRILL 15%
The model gave 85% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 26:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 85%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3