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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 9 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 7 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 7 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
tOfu · 6 games
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 6 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 6 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MISERY · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
tOfu · 6 games
67%

Spider Pigzs

Lina
Linasignature
No!ob · 9 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
LeBronDota · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
dnz · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dnz · 6 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mitch · 6 games
83%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mitch · 5 games
80%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
LeBronDota · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
210 picks · 449 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
185 picks · 339 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
180 picks · 250 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
173 picks · 140 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
147 picks · 167 bans
57%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
143 picks · 235 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
134 picks · 452 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
126 picks · 76 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength58% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:15
Hellbear Smashers 55%Spider Pigzs 45%
The model gave 55% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 32:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaAce
59% · 7 games29% · 3 games
Anti-Magelil pleb
Anti-Mage
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMISERY
57% · 14 games53% · 7 games
LinaNo!ob
Lina
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightStormstormer
44% · 5 games44% · 21 game
BloodseekerMitch
Bloodseeker
Rubick
RubickGilgir
46% · 23 games54% · 18 games
Earthshakerdnz
Earthshaker
Pangolier
PangoliertOfu
62% · 19 games43% · 19 games
Elder TitanLeBronDota
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct38:12
Hellbear Smashers 57%Spider Pigzs 43%
The model gave 57% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 32:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingAce
66% · 33 games47% · 40 games
GrimstrokeNo!ob
Grimstroke
Leshrac
LeshracStormstormer
45% · 11 games56% · 11 games
Slarklil pleb
Slark
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMISERY
54% · 32 games37% · 19 games
BrewmasterMitch
Brewmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LighttOfu
41% · 25 games48% · 21 game
EnigmaLeBronDota
Enigma
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinGilgir
59% · 52 games42% · 62 games
Rubickdnz
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 57%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2