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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:2
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winstrike Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 17 games
82%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 15 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 13 games
77%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
82%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Gilgir · 11 games
64%

Winstrike Team

Puck
Puckoften banned
re1bl · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
yamich · 11 games
64%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 9 games
56%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 9 games
56%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 8 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panto · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
378 picks · 794 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
351 picks · 474 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
299 picks · 529 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 227 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
267 picks · 423 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
249 picks · 147 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
234 picks · 489 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
230 picks · 343 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 62%
Hero pool strength58% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:19
Hellbear Smashers 76%Winstrike Team 24%
The model gave 76% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 21:35.
Game 2prediction missed35:34
Hellbear Smashers 76%Winstrike Team 24%
The model gave 76% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 44:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 76%
Series resultWinstrike Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2