Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
B8 Esports
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
Rubick
[T]SA · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 6 games
Earthshaker
[T]SA · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
429 picks · 962 bans
Void Spirit
393 picks · 553 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 709 bans
Mars
337 picks · 568 bans
Grimstroke
313 picks · 301 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 210 bans
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 284 bans
Lion
271 picks · 143 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 35%
Hero pool strength54% HellRaisers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:22
HellRaisers 71%B8 Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 31:56.
Game 2prediction missed12:28
HellRaisers 71%B8 Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 36:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 71%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2