Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Darksideloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Darkside
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
790 picks · 534 bans
Tiny
562 picks · 404 bans
Tusk
539 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 573 bans
Nature's Prophet
429 picks · 697 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 296 bans
Death Prophet
395 picks · 775 bans
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 828 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 28%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:18
HellRaisers 83%Darkside 17%
The model gave 83% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Darkside in 29:16.
Game 2prediction missed39:33
HellRaisers 83%Darkside 17%
The model gave 83% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Darkside in 55:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 83%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2