Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 8 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Askold · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Kami · 4 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
Snapfire
Muka · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
258 picks · 362 bans
Tidehunter
258 picks · 383 bans
Monkey King
253 picks · 596 bans
Bane
223 picks · 157 bans
Void Spirit
217 picks · 254 bans
Lion
215 picks · 101 bans
Lina
213 picks · 461 bans
Pangolier
207 picks · 256 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:19
HellRaisers 64%Hydra 36%
The model gave 64% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Hydra in 27:18.
Game 2prediction missed18:11
HellRaisers 64%Hydra 36%
The model gave 64% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Hydra in 29:20.
Game 3prediction missed6:34
HellRaisers 64%Hydra 36%
The model gave 64% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Hydra in 27:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 64%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3