Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Level UP
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Sand King
Bor@nija · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
395 picks · 1016 bans
Mars
373 picks · 599 bans
Lion
362 picks · 189 bans
Grimstroke
361 picks · 365 bans
Void Spirit
320 picks · 510 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 682 bans
Tusk
308 picks · 227 bans
Snapfire
257 picks · 145 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:34
HellRaisers 70%Level UP 30%
The model gave 70% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Level UP in 34:16.
Game 2prediction missed31:17
HellRaisers 70%Level UP 30%
The model gave 70% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Level UP in 31:20.
Game 3prediction missed13:20
HellRaisers 70%Level UP 30%
The model gave 70% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Level UP in 33:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 70%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3