Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mind Gamesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
328 picks · 473 bans
Bane
279 picks · 214 bans
Snapfire
276 picks · 156 bans
Weaver
264 picks · 581 bans
Tidehunter
263 picks · 395 bans
Monkey King
255 picks · 710 bans
Ember Spirit
218 picks · 302 bans
Lion
214 picks · 100 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
HellRaisers 86%Mind Games 14%
The model gave 86% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers.
Game 2prediction missed24:12
HellRaisers 86%Mind Games 14%
The model gave 86% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Mind Games in 25:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 86%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2