BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monaspaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
366 picks · 344 bans
Tusk
323 picks · 299 bans
Marci
272 picks · 516 bans
Undying
253 picks · 465 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 565 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 597 bans
Shadow Fiend
222 picks · 343 bans
Snapfire
219 picks · 119 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:19
HellRaisers 60%Monaspa 40%
The model gave 60% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Monaspa in 27:35.
Game 2prediction missed27:39
HellRaisers 60%Monaspa 40%
The model gave 60% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Monaspa in 39:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 60%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2