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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 0:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.

Natus Vincere

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
GeneRaL · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 13 games
54%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Solo · 12 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 11 games
27%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 11 games
55%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
V-Tune · 9 games
44%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 8 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
427 picks · 270 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 550 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
370 picks · 433 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
342 picks · 705 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
308 picks · 412 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
307 picks · 453 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
270 picks · 400 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
260 picks · 404 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total77% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:38
HellRaisers 77%Natus Vincere 23%
The model gave 77% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:17.
Game 2prediction missed7:27
HellRaisers 77%Natus Vincere 23%
The model gave 77% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 28:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 77%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2