Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Bounty Hunterloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubick
ntakii · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
dEsire · 7 games
Pucksignature
ntakii · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 5 games
Bloodseeker
BliNcc · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Flash · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Flash · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Flash · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
247 picks · 513 bans
Void Spirit
227 picks · 278 bans
Mars
205 picks · 378 bans
Earth Spirit
193 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
166 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
163 picks · 188 bans
Nyx Assassin
162 picks · 515 bans
Wraith King
154 picks · 201 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:16
HellRaisers 46%No Bounty Hunter 54%
The model gave 54% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 29:54.
Game 2prediction correct19:44
HellRaisers 46%No Bounty Hunter 54%
The model gave 54% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 31:40.
Game 3prediction correct34:23
HellRaisers 46%No Bounty Hunter 54%
The model gave 54% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 36:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 54%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3