Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NNoMarciloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
NoMarci
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Daxak · 3 games
Rubick
forcemajor · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Noticed · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
Snapfire
forcemajor · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
258 picks · 311 bans
Tidehunter
253 picks · 380 bans
Monkey King
241 picks · 523 bans
Lion
228 picks · 125 bans
Lina
225 picks · 469 bans
Void Spirit
221 picks · 242 bans
Pangolier
218 picks · 285 bans
Tiny
210 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:30
HellRaisers 79%NoMarci 21%
The model gave 79% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by NoMarci in 49:42.
Game 2prediction missed42:11
HellRaisers 79%NoMarci 21%
The model gave 79% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by NoMarci in 33:36.
Game 3prediction missed24:20
HellRaisers 79%NoMarci 21%
The model gave 79% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by NoMarci in 35:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 79%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3