EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:1series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Prosti Esliloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Prosti Esli
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
348 picks · 719 bans
Void Spirit
327 picks · 420 bans
Mars
276 picks · 488 bans
Earth Spirit
255 picks · 216 bans
Death Prophet
238 picks · 349 bans
Rubick
230 picks · 129 bans
Keeper of the Light
218 picks · 448 bans
Nyx Assassin
216 picks · 659 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:21
HellRaisers 63%Prosti Esli 37%
The model gave 63% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 36:41.
Game 2prediction missed27:16
HellRaisers 63%Prosti Esli 37%
The model gave 63% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Prosti Esli in 41:34.
Game 3prediction correct8:30
HellRaisers 63%Prosti Esli 37%
The model gave 63% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 31:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 63%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3