Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Prosti Esliloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Prosti Esli
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
409 picks · 995 bans
Mars
348 picks · 575 bans
Void Spirit
344 picks · 525 bans
Grimstroke
339 picks · 350 bans
Lion
327 picks · 177 bans
Death Prophet
323 picks · 702 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 222 bans
Earth Spirit
267 picks · 277 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:26
HellRaisers 71%Prosti Esli 29%
The model gave 71% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Prosti Esli in 33:29.
Game 2prediction missed30:43
HellRaisers 71%Prosti Esli 29%
The model gave 71% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Prosti Esli in 1:07:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 71%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2