Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
416 picks · 299 bans
Mars
390 picks · 565 bans
Queen of Pain
313 picks · 367 bans
Snapfire
313 picks · 176 bans
Weaver
311 picks · 736 bans
Kunkka
248 picks · 425 bans
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 326 bans
Spirit Breaker
234 picks · 330 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 70%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total66% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:21
HellRaisers 66%PuckChamp 34%
The model gave 66% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 46:54.
Game 2prediction missed28:7
HellRaisers 66%PuckChamp 34%
The model gave 66% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 31:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 66%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2