Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Banesignature
Save- · 11 games
Lionsignature
Save- · 10 games
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 10 games
Winter Wyvern
1ls · 9 games
Earthshaker
DM · 8 games
Medusasignature
Nightfall · 8 games
Void Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
494 picks · 353 bans
Mars
445 picks · 648 bans
Queen of Pain
382 picks · 477 bans
Weaver
382 picks · 830 bans
Snapfire
369 picks · 193 bans
Kunkka
298 picks · 503 bans
Spirit Breaker
287 picks · 451 bans
Ember Spirit
262 picks · 352 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:22
HellRaisers 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 26:08.
Game 2prediction correct28:6
HellRaisers 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 25:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 51%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2