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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 1:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Virtus.prowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.

Virtus.pro

Bane
Banesignature
Save- · 11 games
73%
Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 11 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
gpK~ · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
1ls · 10 games
80%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
1ls · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 8 games
88%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
DM · 8 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
1ls · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
544 picks · 387 bans
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
456 picks · 555 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
447 picks · 650 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
433 picks · 847 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
358 picks · 181 bans
44%
Kunkka
Kunkka
341 picks · 540 bans
54%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
341 picks · 567 bans
52%
Wraith King
Wraith King
280 picks · 321 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:28
HellRaisers 58%Virtus.pro 42%
The model gave 58% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 19:47.
Game 2prediction missed25:15
HellRaisers 58%Virtus.pro 42%
The model gave 58% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:49.
Game 3prediction missed13:19
HellRaisers 58%Virtus.pro 42%
The model gave 58% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 58%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3