Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Virtus.pro
Tiny
yamich · 20 games
Marcisignature
yamich · 14 games
Disruptorsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
Skywrath Mageoften banned
Xakoda · 13 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Xakoda · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
DM · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
358 picks · 344 bans
Tiny
333 picks · 328 bans
Mirana
262 picks · 254 bans
Rubick
257 picks · 194 bans
Crystal Maiden
201 picks · 143 bans
Snapfire
179 picks · 106 bans
Pangolier
177 picks · 497 bans
Ember Spirit
173 picks · 458 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total54% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:7
HellRaisers 46%Virtus.pro 54%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:34.
Game 2prediction correct38:9
HellRaisers 46%Virtus.pro 54%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 54%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2