Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
X3
Bane
antoha · 23 games
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 11 games
Pugnaoften banned
antoha · 11 games
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 10 games
Hoodwink
velheor · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
nesfeer · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 444 bans
Mars
488 picks · 694 bans
Bane
460 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 524 bans
Sand King
410 picks · 561 bans
Storm Spirit
403 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 612 bans
Grimstroke
360 picks · 311 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:6
HellRaisers 55%X3 45%
The model gave 55% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by X3 in 28:14.
Game 2prediction missed9:20
HellRaisers 55%X3 45%
The model gave 55% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by X3 in 19:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 55%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2