Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionHHellraisinsloss 1:2
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DD Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellraisins
No games played over 6 months.
DD Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
256 picks · 382 bans
Mars
255 picks · 352 bans
Monkey King
255 picks · 582 bans
Bane
222 picks · 147 bans
Lion
215 picks · 100 bans
Void Spirit
215 picks · 250 bans
Lina
211 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
211 picks · 255 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Hellraisins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Hellraisins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:31
Hellraisins 63%DD Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Hellraisins — the game was taken by DD Gaming in 46:18.
Game 2prediction correct36:39
Hellraisins 63%DD Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Hellraisins — the game was taken by Hellraisins in 44:53.
Game 3prediction missed38:19
Hellraisins 63%DD Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Hellraisins — the game was taken by DD Gaming in 41:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellraisins · 63%
Series resultDD Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3