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ESL One Raleigh 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
AVULUSloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 27 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 23 games
65%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 22 games
55%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 21 game
67%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
76%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Davai · 15 games
60%

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 36 games
61%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 35 games
49%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 33 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 30 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 28 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 25 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 24 games
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
564 picks · 792 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
450 picks · 320 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
437 picks · 677 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
427 picks · 790 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
403 picks · 875 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
396 picks · 380 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
385 picks · 529 bans
48%
Magnus
Magnus
384 picks · 1067 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:17
Heroic 52%AVULUS 48%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by AVULUS in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmaster4nalog
52% · 154 games48% · 152 games
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
Templar Assassin
Luna
LunaYuma
54% · 84 games50% · 85 games
SlardarMo13ei
Slardar
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
47% · 116 games53% · 201 game
Centaur WarrunnerXibbe
Centaur Warrunner
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMatthew
45% · 74 games48% · 50 games
TinkerSoNNeikO
Tinker
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKJ
51% · 181 game52% · 121 game
EarthshakerdEsire
Earthshaker
Game 2prediction correct43:17
Heroic 54%AVULUS 46%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:05:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuma
49% · 152 games52% · 129 games
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
Templar Assassin
Slardar
Slardar4nalog
49% · 106 games49% · 329 games
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Medusa
MedusaWisper
46% · 77 games55% · 179 games
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionKJ
59% · 71 game46% · 41 game
SilencerSoNNeikO
Silencer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMatthew
54% · 353 games38% · 81 game
Night StalkerdEsire
Night Stalker
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2