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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Scofield · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 21 game
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 21 game
76%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
37%
Jakiro
Jakiro
KJ · 17 games
29%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 49 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 25 games
44%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
dEsire · 23 games
61%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 20 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 19 games
32%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 18 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mo13ei · 18 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ekki · 16 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
530 picks · 594 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
480 picks · 242 bans
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
437 picks · 476 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
422 picks · 354 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
395 picks · 843 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 367 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
373 picks · 547 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 536 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total63% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:11
Heroic 59%AVULUS 41%
The model gave 59% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYuma
45% · 121 game46% · 162 games
UrsaSmiling Knight
Ursa
Kunkka
Kunkka4nalog
47% · 157 games46% · 139 games
Queen of PainWorick
Queen of Pain
Doom
DoomWisper
57% · 231 game50% · 181 game
Dark SeerXibbe
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowScofield
48% · 234 games52% · 408 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
51% · 286 games56% · 139 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct39:16
Heroic 56%AVULUS 44%
The model gave 56% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 55:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
47% · 117 games53% · 162 games
MorphlingSmiling Knight
Morphling
Sniper
Sniper4nalog
45% · 114 games54% · 150 games
PuckWorick
Puck
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainYuma
39% · 94 games49% · 40 games
UndyingXibbe
Undying
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKJ
63% · 105 games48% · 175 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Dark Willow
Snapfire
SnapfireScofield
39% · 127 games68% · 30 games
BaneFly
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 63%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2