The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 35 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 27 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 20 games
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 19 games
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 18 games
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 18 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
447 picks · 681 bans
Crystal Maiden
422 picks · 196 bans
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 549 bans
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 418 bans
Batrider
350 picks · 589 bans
Rubick
349 picks · 168 bans
Dragon Knight
336 picks · 849 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 642 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:7
Heroic 66%beastcoast 34%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 35:55.
Game 2prediction correct17:13
Heroic 66%beastcoast 34%
The model gave 66% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 34:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 66%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2