Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 33 games
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 25 games
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 21 game
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 18 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 18 games
Grimstrokesignature
Scofield · 17 games
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 17 games
Blacklist International
Hoodwink
Tims · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Gabbi · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Tims · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Jaunuel · 4 games
Snapfire
Tims · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
386 picks · 676 bans
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 373 bans
Clockwerk
319 picks · 454 bans
Dark Willow
312 picks · 352 bans
Weaver
311 picks · 594 bans
Rubick
309 picks · 194 bans
Hoodwink
305 picks · 225 bans
Pangolier
290 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:5
Heroic 52%Blacklist International 48%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin4nalog
RazorAbed
LifestealerK1
WeaverNatsumi
SlardarDavai
MarsGabbi
Dark WillowScofield
PhoenixTims
ClockwerkKJ
SvenJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct21:35
Heroic 49%Blacklist International 51%
The model gave 51% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Blacklist International in 39:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenK1
LifestealerNatsumi
Monkey King4nalog
Sand KingAbed
Ember SpiritDavai
DoomGabbi
HoodwinkScofield
SnapfireTims
Shadow DemonKJ
DisruptorJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 51%
Accuracy by game2 of 2