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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Edgewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
62%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 20 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 18 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakiro
KJ · 17 games
29%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Wisper · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 14 games
43%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
4nalog · 14 games
64%

Edge

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 12 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 9 games
22%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 8 games
25%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 7 games
29%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Vitaly · 6 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PiPi · 6 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Michael · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 581 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
493 picks · 442 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
462 picks · 232 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
359 picks · 727 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
327 picks · 748 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
324 picks · 508 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
314 picks · 270 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:31
Heroic 67%Edge 33%
The model gave 67% on Heroic — the game was taken by Edge in 33:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Lina4nalog
52% · 160 games47% · 224 games
Morphlingpayk
Morphling
Kunkka
KunkkaYuma
48% · 192 games50% · 196 games
MagnusPiPi
Magnus
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
64% · 211 games43% · 279 games
PangolierVitaly
Pangolier
Lion
LionScofield
51% · 277 games48% · 124 games
RingmasterYadomi
Ringmaster
Warlock
WarlockKJ
50% · 216 games46% · 233 games
TuskMichael
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct43:15
Heroic 64%Edge 36%
The model gave 64% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:02:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkka4nalog
36% · 116 games50% · 207 games
Storm SpiritPiPi
Storm Spirit
Sven
SvenYuma
55% · 105 games48% · 139 games
Centaur WarrunnerVitaly
Centaur Warrunner
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
52% · 122 games55% · 128 games
Templar Assassinpayk
Templar Assassin
Marci
MarciScofield
49% · 103 games53% · 34 games
UndyingYadomi
Undying
Ringmaster
RingmasterKJ
46% · 185 games55% · 123 games
Shadow ShamanMichael
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed22:23
Heroic 70%Edge 30%
The model gave 70% on Heroic — the game was taken by Edge in 42:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
53% · 140 games44% · 247 games
Terrorbladepayk
Terrorblade
Death Prophet
Death Prophet4nalog
54% · 30 games43% · 159 games
KunkkaVitaly
Kunkka
Tiny
TinyYuma
50% · 442 games53% · 83 games
Keeper of the LightPiPi
Keeper of the Light
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKJ
59% · 90 games47% · 242 games
MuertaMichael
Muerta
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanScofield
56% · 185 games44% · 156 games
RingmasterYadomi
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 78%
Series resultEdge 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3