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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Estar Backsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 24 games
67%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Wisper · 23 games
65%
Muerta
Muerta
Scofield · 20 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
KJ · 18 games
72%
Jakiro
Jakiro
KJ · 17 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 16 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Wisper · 15 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Scofield · 15 games
60%

Estar Backs

Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 4 games
75%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Wits · 4 games
100%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Prada · 4 games
75%
Chen
Chen
Prada · 3 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Prada · 3 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Leostyle · 3 games
100%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 3 games
67%
Riki
Riki
Michael · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 607 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
473 picks · 239 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 434 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
372 picks · 786 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
355 picks · 516 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
346 picks · 795 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
339 picks · 300 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
325 picks · 361 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:2
Heroic 76%Estar Backs 24%
The model gave 76% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 30:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmaster4nalog
55% · 217 games43% · 306 games
BatriderLumière
Batrider
Ursa
UrsaYuma
57% · 73 games48% · 335 games
TuskPrada
Tusk
Mars
MarsWisper
55% · 107 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowScofield
50% · 198 games
Oracle
OracleKJ
57% · 46 games
Game 2prediction missed10:34
Heroic 75%Estar Backs 25%
The model gave 75% on Heroic — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYuma
44% · 41 game46% · 193 games
GyrocopterLumière
Gyrocopter
Void Spirit
Void Spirit4nalog
49% · 27 games50% · 64 games
Naga SirenPrada
Naga Siren
Magnus
MagnusWisper
57% · 69 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanScofield
56% · 62 games
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKJ
51% · 58 games
Game 3prediction correct35:33
Heroic 75%Estar Backs 25%
The model gave 75% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 59:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonYuma
31% · 18 games48% · 143 games
Templar AssassinLumière
Templar Assassin
Enigma
EnigmaWisper
49% · 38 games58% · 71 game
Naga SirenPrada
Naga Siren
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit4nalog
44% · 87 games
Chen
ChenKJ
62% · 29 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanScofield
49% · 42 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 91%
Series resultHeroic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3