DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 25 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 23 games
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
Tusksignature
Scofield · 18 games
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 15 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Parker · 15 games
Hoodwink
Scofield · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 14 games
Fantasy Gaming
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DM · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
JP · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ArzenT · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Yor · 1 game
Linaoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
393 picks · 500 bans
Muerta
383 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
361 picks · 381 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 559 bans
Batrider
327 picks · 398 bans
Lion
325 picks · 158 bans
Beastmaster
320 picks · 735 bans
Gyrocopter
304 picks · 418 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total92% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:45
Heroic 78%Fantasy Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 57:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyYuma
WeaverJP
Earthshaker4nalog
EnigmaArzenT
PhoenixWisper
TuskZxca
ClockwerkScofield
BatriderYor
ChenKJ
Game 2prediction correct61:18
Heroic 76%Fantasy Gaming 24%
The model gave 76% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinYuma
BeastmasterArzenT
Earth Spirit4nalog
LifestealerJP
DawnbreakerWisper
PhoenixZxca
SnapfireKJ
BatriderYor
ClockwerkScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 92%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2