?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 3:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Fusionloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
KJ · 27 games
70%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
4nalog · 27 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Scofield · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 18 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 16 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 15 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 15 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Parker · 15 games
73%

Fusion

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 11 games
55%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 8 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Mnz · 8 games
63%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 7 games
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 530 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
401 picks · 332 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 386 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 580 bans
45%
Lion
Lion
350 picks · 173 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
344 picks · 430 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 786 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 482 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 70%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total74% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
Heroic 64%Fusion 36%
The model gave 64% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 45:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
47% · 390 games54% · 67 games
EarthshakerMnz
Earthshaker
Huskar
Huskar4nalog
50% · 54 games57% · 136 games
BristlebackFrank
Bristleback
Tiny
TinyWisper
51% · 443 games45% · 432 games
PangolierLeostyle
Pangolier
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiKJ
60% · 134 games44% · 417 games
BatriderMichael
Batrider
Lion
LionScofield
50% · 342 games46% · 311 games
PhoenixPrada
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct36:10
Heroic 62%Fusion 38%
The model gave 62% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuma
51% · 217 games50% · 257 games
TimbersawLeostyle
Timbersaw
Tiny
Tiny4nalog
51% · 453 games44% · 267 games
BeastmasterFrank
Beastmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackWisper
56% · 209 games49% · 381 game
GyrocopterMnz
Gyrocopter
Muerta
MuertaScofield
48% · 237 games47% · 386 games
BatriderMichael
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
49% · 313 games55% · 138 games
Ogre MagiPrada
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction correct38:29
Heroic 64%Fusion 36%
The model gave 64% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:02:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
49% · 362 games46% · 308 games
Dragon KnightMnz
Dragon Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
54% · 326 games46% · 136 games
LinaLeostyle
Lina
Earthshaker
Earthshaker4nalog
53% · 81 game48% · 223 games
Primal BeastFrank
Primal Beast
Muerta
MuertaScofield
51% · 235 games46% · 262 games
PhoenixPrada
Phoenix
Chen
ChenKJ
63% · 172 games44% · 247 games
TuskMichael
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 74%
Series resultHeroic 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3