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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 30 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 20 games
65%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 19 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 15 games
73%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 15 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
KJ · 13 games
77%

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 25 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 20 games
70%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 19 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 18 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 17 games
76%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
473 picks · 205 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
453 picks · 831 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 595 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 663 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
419 picks · 179 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
396 picks · 726 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 620 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
382 picks · 295 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:41
Heroic 39%Gaimin Gladiators 61%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerK1
50% · 80 games59% · 26 games
BristlebackAce
Bristleback
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight4nalog
53% · 104 games59% · 43 games
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
Chaos Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
46% · 172 games49% · 47 games
SniperQuinn
Sniper
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKJ
45% · 103 games53% · 321 game
BatridertOfu
Batrider
Rubick
RubickScofield
45% · 214 games47% · 236 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct13:36
Heroic 40%Gaimin Gladiators 60%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerK1
49% · 116 games49% · 121 game
Lunadyrachyo
Luna
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit4nalog
44% · 76 games51% · 41 game
SniperQuinn
Sniper
Doom
DoomDavai
52% · 140 games51% · 181 game
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowScofield
49% · 129 games54% · 81 game
ChenSeleri
Chen
Disruptor
DisruptorKJ
51% · 112 games50% · 149 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 70%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2