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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 8 games
63%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
KJ · 8 games
75%
Alchemist
Alchemist
K1 · 6 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Scofield · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Scofield · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Scofield · 4 games
50%

Infinity Esports

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Kiri · 3 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Frank · 2 games
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Prada · 2 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Leostyle · 2 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Leostyle · 2 games
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Mnz · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Kiri · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 479 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
281 picks · 425 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
264 picks · 233 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 447 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
258 picks · 164 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
245 picks · 341 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
244 picks · 708 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
240 picks · 384 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:27
Heroic 61%Infinity Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 49:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaK1
52% · 143 games59% · 162 games
Faceless VoidMnz
Faceless Void
Pangolier
Pangolier4nalog
54% · 341 game52% · 334 games
DoomOscar
Doom
Enigma
EnigmaDavai
48% · 96 games44% · 110 games
KunkkaPiPi
Kunkka
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
49% · 106 games49% · 170 games
PhoenixMjz
Phoenix
Undying
UndyingKJ
44% · 233 games47% · 143 games
LionGenek
Lion
Game 2prediction missed12:24
Heroic 63%Infinity Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 30:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonK1
42% · 61 game49% · 70 games
SvenMnz
Sven
Huskar
Huskar4nalog
55% · 22 games47% · 22 games
MeepoPiPi
Meepo
Mars
MarsDavai
53% · 153 games47% · 125 games
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
Centaur Warrunner
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKJ
51% · 319 games49% · 335 games
RubickGenek
Rubick
Lion
LionScofield
47% · 173 games58% · 176 games
EnchantressMjz
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct38:27
Heroic 60%Infinity Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerK1
50% · 109 games46% · 148 games
TerrorbladeMnz
Terrorblade
Meepo
Meepo4nalog
45% · 30 games41% · 41 game
ZeusPiPi
Zeus
Viper
ViperDavai
50% · 27 games53% · 222 games
Nature's ProphetGenek
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinyScofield
53% · 268 games56% · 179 games
DoomOscar
Doom
Phoenix
PhoenixKJ
49% · 172 games46% · 16 games
Ogre MagiMjz
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 71%
Series resultHeroic 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3